By Samina Chaudhary
In Pakistan’s vast agricultural heartlands, where golden wheat fields sway gently in the breeze, a looming threat casts a shadow over the landscape: climate change. As global temperatures rise, so does the intensity of seasonal shifts, presenting farmers, scientists, and policymakers with formidable challenges. Wheat, a cornerstone of Pakistan’s agricultural economy and a staple food for its population, is particularly vulnerable. Disruptions in traditional growing conditions due to warmer climates and erratic rainfall disturb the delicate balance required for wheat cultivation. This impact extends across the agricultural ecosystem, threatening food security, economic stability, and environmental sustainability.
Current Impacts of Climate Change
Dr. Bashir Ahmad, Director of the Climate, Energy, and Water Resources Institute (CEWRI) and the National Agricultural Research Centre (NARC), explains that climate change affects major and minor crops by 5% to 15%. These effects are both direct—such as new crop diseases arising from increased rainfall or temperatures—and indirect. Notably, 70% of Pakistan’s agricultural water comes from melting glaciers. Rapid glacier melt, driven by global warming, is a significant concern. Dr. Bashir highlights that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities and deforestation exacerbate the problem, leading to rising temperatures, altered rainfall patterns, and accelerated glacier melt, all of which impact irrigation supplies and agricultural productivity.
Statistical Insights and Regional Impact
Research indicates that a one-degree rise in temperature could cause glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) region to melt by up to 35%, with a two-degree increase leading to a 64% melt. This would severely affect irrigation and crop yields. This year’s wheat season has already suffered considerable setbacks due to unusual rainfall, with estimates suggesting an 8% to 12% reduction in yield. Balochistan has faced the most severe impacts, while Punjab has experienced substantial losses in wheat production. In contrast, Sindh, with its earlier harvesting schedule, was less affected. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa also experienced heavy rains, but its wheat-growing areas were less impacted.
Economic Implications and Technological Innovations
Dr. Bashir emphasizes the critical role of agriculture in Pakistan’s economy. Historical improvements in agriculture have driven economic growth, while setbacks have had adverse effects. For instance, last year’s successful rice crop generated a billion dollars in foreign exchange, underscoring the sector’s economic importance.
To address these challenges, embracing technological innovation is essential. The CEWRI and NARC are exploring advanced technologies to mitigate climate change impacts. For example, responsive drip irrigation systems—originating from the U.S.—conserve 80% of water while boosting yields. Additionally, Chinese nano-technology has proven effective in water conservation and improving crop yields. These technologies have been implemented in regions such as Balochistan, Thar, and Cholistan. Dr. Bashir also highlights the introduction of water-efficient rice varieties and solar water pumping systems, including fixed and portable pumps developed by PARC. Regenerative agriculture techniques, which involve planting without plowing to save water and fertilizer while increasing yield, and high-tech methods such as tunnel and hydro-farming are also being trialed.
Training and Capacity Building
Efforts to train farmers in these new technologies have evolved. Initially, training took place at NARC or PARC stations, but now the focus is on-site at selected farms where technology is implemented and farmers are trained directly. This approach allows local farmers to observe and learn from pilot farms before wider adoption.
Impact on Crop Pests and Beneficial Insects
Dr. Ehsan-ul-Haq from the Institute of Plant and Environmental Protection discusses the impact of climate change on crop pests and beneficial insects. Higher temperatures accelerate pest life cycles, leading to increased generations and greater crop damage. Additionally, the number of beneficial insects declines with rising temperatures, further harming crops. The emergence of new pests is a troubling consequence of climate change.
Conclusion
Despite the challenges posed by climate change, Pakistan is making significant efforts to combat its effects on agriculture. These initiatives offer hope for a future of sustainable agriculture and environmental balance, guiding the nation toward resilience and prosperity. As these strategies evolve, they reflect a commitment to overcoming the adversity posed by climate change and safeguarding Pakistan’s agricultural future.